2024 Oscar Race for Best Picture Outlook
The larger awards groups have begun giving out the 2023 film awards in the last few weeks. Specifically, we’re focusing on the awards bodies that can be predictive, The New York Film Critics, the National Board of Review, and the American Film Institute.
Let’s start with NY Film Critics. Critics groups are the least predictive when it comes to the Oscars but it is a good gauge to see what films are being acclaimed. NYFCs named Killers of the Flower Moon as their Best Picture. Unsurprisingly, Marty is a New Yorker and they love good old Marty.
They also awarded Celine Song’s Past Lives as Best First Feature and Anatomy of a Fall for Best International Feature. This film has been racking up the international wins. However, it is not eligible for Best International Feature at the Oscars. France submitted The Taste of Things as their Oscar submission.
This could work in Anatomy’s favor, it’s widely acclaimed and Academy members could feel bad for the film not being eligible for International Feature.
Their winning performances were: Franz Rogowski for Passages (Best Actor), Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moons (Best Actress), Charles Melton for May December (Best Supporting Actor), and Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers (Best Supporting Actress).
Next is the National Board of Review. NBR is a group of film enthusiasts, spending time talking with filmmakers and other artists and pick their best films of the year.
Killers of the Flower Moon took the top prize at NBR as well. NBR also gives their list of the 10 best films of the year. In alpha order: Barbie, The Boy and the Heron, Ferrari, The Holdovers, The Iron Claw, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things.
There will definitely be crossover at the Oscars but certainly not a 10 for 10.
Their acting awards were: Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers (Best Actor), Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moons (Best Actress), Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things (Best Supporting Actor), and Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers (Best Supporting Actress).
Lastly is the American Film Institute AFI’s list of the 10 best films of 2023. In alphabetical order: American Fiction, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, May December, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse.
Again, there will be a crossover but not a 10 for 10 at the Oscars.
Currently, it looks like there are seven films with a lot of steam coming to the end of the year. Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, and Poor Things.
The only one I am unsure of is Past Lives. It came out way early in the year and it is a small film. People will need to be reminded how good the film is. The other six are likely locks at the Academy Awards.
Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon seems to have pole position for Best Picture, but the Oscars is a long way away still plenty of time to get passed.
It’s very early to predict acting awards but Lily and Da’Vine seem to be the perspective front runners in their categories. SAGs will be the biggest indicator for these categories.
Monday the Gloden Globe nominations are announced and though they’re not taken that seriously, it can still show what films and performances have strength.
