2024 Official Oscar Predictions
Here are my official Oscar predictions. What I think will win, and who I think should win.
Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Napoleon
Who Will Win: The Creator
Who Should Win: The Creator
I heard a strategy for this category. If there are, no Best Picture nominees then pick the film that would most likely be a Best Picture nominee. Napoleon is that choice. However, The Creator’s visual effects are the one thing it had going for it. The Creator also won the VES (Visual Effects Soicety) industry award. I’m taking a gamble and predicting it to win.
Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest
Oppenheimer tech sweep incoming. The Zone of Interest’s Sound Design & Mixing is incredible and some of the best stuff to highlight this category in a longtime.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Society of the Snow
Who Will Win: Maestro
Who Should Win: Poor Things
Do you think they’ll announce “By a nose” when it wins like Denzel did when Nicole Kidman won her Oscar for The Hours?
I preferred the subtler but more interesting work in Poor Things.
Music (Original Song)
“The Fire Inside” – Flaimin’ Hot
“I’m Just Ken” - Barbie
“It Never Went Away” – American Symphony
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” – Killers of the Flower Moon
“What Was I Made For?” – Barbie
Who Will Win: What Was I Made For? – Barbie
Who Should Win: Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) – Killers of the Flower Moon
Billie is going to win another Oscar. I’d love it to go to Killers of the Flower Moon. A powerful song and should lead to a powerful moment at the Oscars.
Music (Original Score)
American Fiction – Laura Karpman
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – John Williams
Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson
Oppenheimer – Ludwig Goransson
Poor Things – Jerskin Fendrix
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer – Ludwig Goransson
Who Should Win: Oppenheimer – Ludwig Goransson
Ludwig should win for the “Can You Hear the Music” piece alone.
Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who Will Win: Poor Things
Who Should Win: Barbie
Makes sense that Poor Things will win. It’s like a period film but with a weird style. But, did you see how many people dressed as Kens and Barbies for Halloween?
Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who Will Win: Poor Things
Who Should Win: Barbie
Poor Things production design is great. I marveled in Barbie at how they made Barbie world look and feel so real, all thanks to production design.
Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Oppenheimer
It’s crazy that Hoyt has not won an Oscar yet.
Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon
Thelma is the GOAT! But an Oppenheimer tech sweep feels inevitable.
Live Action Short Film
The Actor
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White, and Blue
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Who Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Who Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
May Wes Anderson finally win an Oscar!
Documentary Short Film
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
The Island In Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó
Who Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning
Who Should Win: The Last Repair Shop
This one is really up in the air for me. I’m not sure if there is a front-runner, so I’m going with the subject that is on the political frontlines, book banning. I’d love it if The Last Repair Shop won. It’s a subject close to my heart.
Animated Short Film
Letter to a Pig
Ninety-Five Senses
Our Uniform
Pachyderme
War Is Over!
Who Will Win: War is Over!
Who Should Win: Ninety-Five Senses
War Is Over! Is contrived emotionally manipulative garbage. Ninety-Five Senses is subtle in its handling of subject matter. The different animation styles for each sense are impressive as well.
Documentary Feature Film
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol
Who Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Who Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
It’s a tough watch but a prescient one. I think the timely subject matter will have the Academy wanting to reward this film.
Animated Feature Film
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Who Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Who Should Win: The Boy and the Heron
Spider-Man won the Annie Guild Award for animated feature. And the PGA (Producers Guild Award) for animated feature. The Boy and the Heron however was one of the best films from last year.
International Feature Film
Io Capitano
Perfect Days
Society of the Snow
The Teachers’ Lounge
The Zone of Interest
Who Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest
The Zone of Interest is the best film from 2023. It should walk away with this one.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
The Holdovers - David Hemingson
Maestro - Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
May December - Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
Past Lives - Celine Song
Who Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
Who Should Win: Past Lives - Celine Song
It’s not often that a foreign language film wins a screenplay Academy Award. There is a lot of support behind the film and I think this will be the one spot they will reward the film. Celine Song’s Past Lives is an incredible film, especially for a first-time filmmaker. I’d love it if it won here.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
American Fiction - Cord Jefferson
Barbie - Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan
Poor Things - Tony McNamara
The Zone of Interest - Jonathan Glazer
Who Will Win: American Fiction – Cord Jefferson
Who Should Win: Barbie - Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
The USC Scripter’s award is one of the most telling precursors. American Fiction won it this year. The film has a lot of support, just like Anatomy of a Fall, and I believe this is where they’ll reward it as well.
Can we please finally give Greta an Oscar? Especially since Killer of the Flower Moon inexplicably missed here.
Directing
Anatomy of a Fall - Justine Triet
Killers of the Flower Moon - Martin Scorsese
Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan
Poor Things - Yorgos Lanthimos
The Zone of Interest - Jonathan Glazer
Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
It is an obvious lock if there ever was one.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
America Ferrera - Barbie
Jodie Foster - Nyad
Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
Who Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
Who Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
Can’t remember when a performance was this dominant at all the precursors. She is great in the film and the heart of the movie.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction
Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
Ryan Gosling - Barbie
Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon
RDJ has also been very dominant but not as dominant as Da’Vine. But he came on strong late and seems to be steamrolling to an Oscar win. I think De Niro gave his most complex performance in a very long time.
Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening - Nyad
Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall
Carey Mulligan - Maestro
Emma Stone - Poor Things
Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Who Should Win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
Lily just won the SAG for Best Actress. It’s still a race because Emma Stone won at BAFTA. But, this is only because Lily was not nominated. I think her narrative with the added fact that she gave one of the best performances of the year will lead to Lily winning her first Oscar.
Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper - Maestro
Colman Domingo - Rustin
Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers or Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
Cillian and Paul are equally brilliant in different performances. I’d be happy if either won. But, given the fact that Cillian was the first Irish actor to win Best Actor at BAFTA and he won the SAG, I think Cillian is taking home the Oscar.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
The Zone of Interest
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer
Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest
You can see this win coming from a mile away. Not even sure what its challenger would be. I think Oppenheimer will be a great winner, but The Zone of Interest was the best film I saw last year.
My personal ranking if I were an Oscar voter:
1 - The Zone of Interest
2 - Past Lives
3 - Oppenheimer
4 - Killers of the Flower Moon
5 - The Holdovers
6 - Anatomy of a Fall
7 - Barbie
8 - Poor Things
9 - Maestro
10 - American Fiction
The Oscars will air at 6pm central this year on ABC.
