Here are my official Oscar predictions. What I think will win, and who I think should win.

Visual Effects

The Creator

Godzilla Minus One

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 3

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Napoleon

Who Will Win: The Creator

Who Should Win: The Creator

I heard a strategy for this category. If there are, no Best Picture nominees then pick the film that would most likely be a Best Picture nominee. Napoleon is that choice. However, The Creator’s visual effects are the one thing it had going for it. The Creator also won the VES (Visual Effects Soicety) industry award. I’m taking a gamble and predicting it to win.

Sound

The Creator

Maestro

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One

Oppenheimer

The Zone of Interest

Who Will Win: Oppenheimer

Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest

Oppenheimer tech sweep incoming. The Zone of Interest’s Sound Design & Mixing is incredible and some of the best stuff to highlight this category in a longtime.

Makeup and Hairstyling

Golda

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Society of the Snow

Who Will Win: Maestro

Who Should Win: Poor Things

Do you think they’ll announce “By a nose” when it wins like Denzel did when Nicole Kidman won her Oscar for The Hours?

I preferred the subtler but more interesting work in Poor Things.

Music (Original Song)

“The Fire Inside” – Flaimin’ Hot

“I’m Just Ken” - Barbie

“It Never Went Away” – American Symphony

“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” – Killers of the Flower Moon

“What Was I Made For?” – Barbie

Who Will Win: What Was I Made For? – Barbie

Who Should Win: Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People) – Killers of the Flower Moon

Billie is going to win another Oscar. I’d love it to go to Killers of the Flower Moon. A powerful song and should lead to a powerful moment at the Oscars.

Music (Original Score)

American Fiction – Laura Karpman

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny – John Williams

Killers of the Flower Moon – Robbie Robertson

Oppenheimer – Ludwig Goransson

Poor Things – Jerskin Fendrix

Who Will Win: Oppenheimer – Ludwig Goransson

Who Should Win: Oppenheimer – Ludwig Goransson

Ludwig should win for the “Can You Hear the Music” piece alone.

Costume Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Who Will Win: Poor Things

Who Should Win: Barbie

Makes sense that Poor Things will win. It’s like a period film but with a weird style. But, did you see how many people dressed as Kens and Barbies for Halloween?

Production Design

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Napoleon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Who Will Win: Poor Things

Who Should Win: Barbie

Poor Things production design is great. I marveled in Barbie at how they made Barbie world look and feel so real, all thanks to production design.

Cinematography

El Conde

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Who Will Win: Oppenheimer

Who Should Win: Oppenheimer

It’s crazy that Hoyt has not won an Oscar yet.

Film Editing

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Who Will Win: Oppenheimer

Who Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon

Thelma is the GOAT! But an Oppenheimer tech sweep feels inevitable.

Live Action Short Film

The Actor

Invincible

Knight of Fortune

Red, White, and Blue

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Who Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

Who Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

May Wes Anderson finally win an Oscar!

Documentary Short Film

The ABCs of Book Banning

The Barber of Little Rock

The Island In Between

The Last Repair Shop

Nǎi Nai and Wài Pó

Who Will Win: The ABCs of Book Banning

Who Should Win: The Last Repair Shop

This one is really up in the air for me. I’m not sure if there is a front-runner, so I’m going with the subject that is on the political frontlines, book banning. I’d love it if The Last Repair Shop won. It’s a subject close to my heart.

Animated Short Film

Letter to a Pig

Ninety-Five Senses

Our Uniform

Pachyderme

War Is Over!

Who Will Win: War is Over!

Who Should Win: Ninety-Five Senses

War Is Over! Is contrived emotionally manipulative garbage. Ninety-Five Senses is subtle in its handling of subject matter. The different animation styles for each sense are impressive as well.

Documentary Feature Film

Bobi Wine: The People’s President

The Eternal Memory

Four Daughters

To Kill a Tiger

20 Days in Mariupol

Who Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

Who Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol

It’s a tough watch but a prescient one. I think the timely subject matter will have the Academy wanting to reward this film.

Animated Feature Film

The Boy and the Heron

Elemental

Nimona

Robot Dreams

Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Who Will Win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Who Should Win: The Boy and the Heron

Spider-Man won the Annie Guild Award for animated feature. And the PGA (Producers Guild Award) for animated feature. The Boy and the Heron however was one of the best films from last year.

International Feature Film

Io Capitano

Perfect Days

Society of the Snow

The Teachers’ Lounge

The Zone of Interest

Who Will Win: The Zone of Interest

Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest

The Zone of Interest is the best film from 2023. It should walk away with this one.

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

The Holdovers - David Hemingson

Maestro - Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer

May December - Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik

Past Lives - Celine Song

Who Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

Who Should Win: Past Lives - Celine Song

It’s not often that a foreign language film wins a screenplay Academy Award. There is a lot of support behind the film and I think this will be the one spot they will reward the film. Celine Song’s Past Lives is an incredible film, especially for a first-time filmmaker. I’d love it if it won here.

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

American Fiction - Cord Jefferson

Barbie - Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach

Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan

Poor Things - Tony McNamara

The Zone of Interest - Jonathan Glazer

Who Will Win: American Fiction – Cord Jefferson

Who Should Win: Barbie - Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach

The USC Scripter’s award is one of the most telling precursors. American Fiction won it this year. The film has a lot of support, just like Anatomy of a Fall, and I believe this is where they’ll reward it as well.

Can we please finally give Greta an Oscar? Especially since Killer of the Flower Moon inexplicably missed here.

 

Directing

Anatomy of a Fall - Justine Triet

Killers of the Flower Moon - Martin Scorsese

Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan

Poor Things - Yorgos Lanthimos

The Zone of Interest - Jonathan Glazer

Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer

Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

It is an obvious lock if there ever was one.

 

Actress in a Supporting Role

Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple

America Ferrera - Barbie

Jodie Foster - Nyad

Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Who Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Who Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers

Can’t remember when a performance was this dominant at all the precursors. She is great in the film and the heart of the movie.

Actor in a Supporting Role

Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction

Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling - Barbie

Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things

Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer

Who Should Win: Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon

RDJ has also been very dominant but not as dominant as Da’Vine. But he came on strong late and seems to be steamrolling to an Oscar win. I think De Niro gave his most complex performance in a very long time.

Actress in a Leading Role

Annette Bening - Nyad

Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Sandra Hüller - Anatomy of a Fall

Carey Mulligan - Maestro

Emma Stone - Poor Things

Who Will Win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Who Should Win: Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon

Lily just won the SAG for Best Actress. It’s still a race because Emma Stone won at BAFTA. But, this is only because Lily was not nominated. I think her narrative with the added fact that she gave one of the best performances of the year will lead to Lily winning her first Oscar.

Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper - Maestro

Colman Domingo - Rustin

Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction

Who Will Win: Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer

Who Should Win: Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers or Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

Cillian and Paul are equally brilliant in different performances. I’d be happy if either won. But, given the fact that Cillian was the first Irish actor to win Best Actor at BAFTA and he won the SAG, I think Cillian is taking home the Oscar.

Best Picture

American Fiction

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Past Lives

Poor Things

The Zone of Interest

Who Will Win: Oppenheimer

Who Should Win: The Zone of Interest

You can see this win coming from a mile away. Not even sure what its challenger would be. I think Oppenheimer will be a great winner, but The Zone of Interest was the best film I saw last year.

My personal ranking if I were an Oscar voter:

1 - The Zone of Interest

2 - Past Lives

3 - Oppenheimer

4 - Killers of the Flower Moon

5 - The Holdovers

6 - Anatomy of a Fall

7 - Barbie

8 - Poor Things

9 - Maestro

10 - American Fiction

The Oscars will air at 6pm central this year on ABC.