We now have the SAG (Screen Actors Guild) award nominations. These are the first of the great Oscar predictors. Many of the Oscar voters are SAG members. When it comes to Oscar nominations, they are nominated by their guilds. Therefore, Actors nominate the actors.

It’s not always a one for one of SAG and Oscar but it’s a very good indicator. There were a few surprises this SAG nomination morning, which keeps the Oscar race interesting, at least the nomination race.

All four acting race leaders are nominated, so they remain in front of their respective packs. Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers, Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer, Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon, and Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer.

Let’s look at the categories individually.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role:

Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer

Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple

Penelope Cruz – Ferrari

Jodie Foster – Nyad

Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

There are four here that were nominated at CCA (Critics Choice Awards) and Golden Globes. Blunt, Brooks, Foster, and Randolph. It’s logical to say that these four will be nominated at the Oscars.

Penelope Cruz was the big surprise here this morning. However, Ferrari was a late-breaking film. Penelope is a beloved and respected actor in this industry. And her performance is outstanding in Ferrari. Even people who don’t like the film agree she is superb. I would bet she gets an Oscar nomination.

The big surprise is Julianne Moore not being nominated here, especially since she got in at CCA and the GG. I would say the weak link is Jodie Foster, but she seems to have strong support. It looks like Cruz, Foster, and Moore will be fighting for that fifth Oscar Nomination.

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role:

Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction

Willem Dafoe – Poor Things

Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon

Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

Ryan Gosling – Barbie

Another big surprise this morning is Sterling K. Brown getting in here over Charles Melton. Charles was getting noms everywhere, he was an early frontrunner in this category with critics groups, but now Downey looks to be the man to beat.

Charles has been steadily losing steam and to completely miss at SAG is pretty big. This doesn’t mean he will miss the Oscar and I would still predict him to get in at the Oscar because Sterling only popped up at CCA, but he missed the Globe.

Neither made the longlist for the BAFTAs. So that fifth spot is wide open, especially with Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things also lurking on the fringe. These three men are vying for that final fifth spot.

Dafoe, De Niro, Downey Jr., and Gosling all feel pretty safe for an Oscar nomination. Though Dafoe also didn’t make the BAFTA longlist, Ruffalo did.

Also, I guess I can finally give up all hope Glenn Howerton for Blackberry is officially done. He is my winner this year for this category.

 

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Lead Role:

Annette Bening – Nyad

Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon

Carey Mulligan – Maestro

Margot Robbie – Barbie

Emma Stone – Poor Things

No big surprises here. Greta Lee missing for Past Lives isn’t a big surprise. She always felt like more of a critic’s darling. She was long-listed for BAFTA, and got in at CCA and The GG. But I think the film is just too small to break through, especially against these juggernauts.

The other Surprise is Sandra Huller missing for Anatomy of a Fall. She also had the same credentials as Greta Lee. Bening is a more popular and very respected actress in the industry, so it’s not too shocking she got in here.

I feel like Greta’s Oscar chances are very slim. If anyone gets in over Bening it will likely be Huller. The other actress who has been missing lately is Natalie Portman for May December. I guess the SAGs really didn’t care for that film. The other four in this category seem like safe bets for Oscar nominations.

 

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Lead Role:

Bradley Cooper – Maestro

Colman Domingo – Rustin

Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers

Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction

Again, not too surprising who is here. Colman has been popping up in most places as well as DiCaprio. Seems like that fifth spot is between Domingo and DiCaprio. It’s a bit surprising Leo missed here, clearly, Domingo has more support

It also might be that the industry feels like it’s Domingo’s time to get his nomination. I also feel like Leonardo is the weakest in Killers of the Flower Moon. But it is the superior film to Rustin.

Again, Cooper, Giamatti, Murphy, and Wright are all locks for Oscar nominations. The one question mark is Andrew Scott for All of Us Strangers. Most of America has not seen that film. It comes out this weekend and if that film takes off he could sneak into that fifth slot.

The bummer here is Zac Efron missing for The Iron Claw. His Oscar chances are seemingly gone. Which is a shame because he gives one of this year’s best performances.

 

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:

American Fiction

Barbie

The Color Purple

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Again, no major surprises here. If anything this shows the actors’ support for The Color Purple. Given that Best Picture is the only category that all guilds can nominate at the Oscars I’d say it’s starting to feel like a safe bet for a Best Picture Nom.

The other four were locks before this, this nomination only solidifies that notion. So with these five we still have five open slots for Best Picture.

1-Oppenheimer

2-Killers of the Flower Moon

3-Barbie

4-American Fiction

5-The Color Purple

6-The Holdovers

7-Maestro

8-Poor Things

9-Anatomy of a Fall

10-The Zone of Interest

 

I’m not feeling so confident about Past Lives. With The Iron Claw missing in Ensemble at the SAGs I think there is no chance it gets in at the Oscars. That is the definition of an Ensemble film.

Given how respected both films are, I still believe in Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest. We have BAFTA nominations on the 18th and then the Oscars on Monday, Jan. 23rd.