Firstly, I want to give prayers to California at this time during the wildfires. SAGs postponed their live announcements because of the fires. My thoughts are with everyone dealing with these horrific fires at the moment.

With that, here are the 2025 SAG nominees and my reactions.

This might be one of the weirdest group of nominees from the SAGs I have seen. I feel like the Oscar race picture is muddier now more than ever, with the exception of a few things.

Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture

Deadpool & Wolverine

Dune: Part Two

The Fall Guy

Gladiator II

Wicked

This is The Fall Guy’s to win and would make sense. It’s an ode to Stunt men and women.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role

Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown

Jamie Lee Curtis – The Last Showgirl

Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson

Ariana Grande – Wicked

Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez

I fully expect the two performances here that have appeared everywhere this awards season to repeat at the Oscars: Ariana and Zoe. This is a big boost for Danielle Deadwyler who needed it for a film that has seemed to be forgotten.

Monica Barbaro is a great surprise here. She’s my MVP of A Complete Unknown and I hope she can get that Oscar nomination. This is a good start to get there.

I don’t understand what Jamie Lee Curtis is doing here, except that the SAGs just love her. Her getting in over Isabella Rossellini and Felicity Jones is a major surprise. I don’t think this will hurt either of them at the Oscars. But Danielle and Monica could hurt one of their chances.

I’d bet on Isabella still getting in at the Oscars. The entire film of Conclave is not showy and the SAGs love showy performances. Conclave is too subtle (performance-wise) for the SAGs I’d bet.

Felicity will depend on the strength of The Brutalist at the Oscars. If they flip for The Brutalist, she is getting nominated. But if it only gets like three nominations on Oscar Nominee morning, she is missing.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role

Jonathan Bailey – Wicked

Yura Borisov – Anora

Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown

Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

Another interesting category. Denzel Washington and Guy Pierce who have both been everywhere this awards season in this category both miss. Clearly, SAGs loved Wicked, a lot. I don’t know of any predictors who had him anywhere near a nomination. I don’t expect him to repeat at the Oscars, but you never know.

Jeremy Strong took the other spot from Denzel or Guy. Jeremy is incredible in The Apprentice and I’d be happy for him to get nominated. I’m just not sure if the Oscars will want to nominate the “Trump” movie.

Yura, Kieran, and Edward all seem safe for nominations at the Oscars.

Clarence Maclin seems to be dead in the water for Sing Sing. I think A24 had too many movies competing this year and this one fell by the wayside. He is amazing in Sing Sing and it would’ve been a great narrative.

Guy missing for The Brutalist is big. A bigger deal than Denzel missing. People are generally not favorable to Gladiator II. I cannot say too much about the performance because I have yet to see The Brutalist (seeing it next weekend!).

However, maybe it’s too subtle. Or maybe the film is too long and people didn’t make time for it? Who knows, but hopefully this isn’t a harbinger for The Brutalist.

Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role

Pamela Anderson – The Last Showgirl

Cynthia Erivo – Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez

Mikey Madison – Anora

Demi Moore – The Substance

So, we have four pretty well-expected nominees here: Cynthia (will repeat at the Oscars), Karla (Like to repeat), Mikey (will repeat), and Demi (After her Globes speech, I expect her to be nominated at the Oscars).

Pamela Anderson is the surprise here. Not only that but The Last Showgirl getting two nominations is a major surprise. Pamela was probably floating around the 8, 9, or 10 spot in Actress at the Oscars and now I’d say she’s shot to 6 maybe 5.

Kidman missing for Babygirl is surprising, nothing is set in stone and she could still appear at the Oscars. Angelina also missed here, her chances seem to be dwindling.

You might see Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths on Oscar Nominee morning. The movie has not gone wide yet and with people finally getting to see it this month will help. Her performance has been lauded all year.

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown

Daniel Craig – Queer

Colman Domingo – Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes – Conclave

This is the only category you can chalk into the Oscars. These have been the five for so long that I don’t see a single surprise on Academy Nominee morning.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture

A Complete Unknown

Anora

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Wicked

With Wicked leading the nominations with five and four acting nominees (including ensemble) It feels like this could be the winner. What takes it over the edge for me is the Jonathan Bailey nominee in Supporting Actor. No one was predicting that.

A Complete Unknown could also win. It’s second with four total nominations and Monica Barbaro getting in shows the love for this film.

Anora performed as expected and Conclave underperformed with Isabella not getting in for Supporting Actress. Emilia Perez is a maybe, industry people seem to love this film but like Anora it performed as expected here.