Another Awards Body serving as a precursor to the Oscars has dropped their nominations. Let’s dive in and see what they mean in terms of their respective Oscar races. Their awards ceremony will be held on January 12th.

Overall impression: I hate that the Critics’ Choice wants so badly to be an Oscar precursor that they no longer have interesting nominations. Conclave and Wicked shouldn’t lead nominations of a critic’s body. They should worry less about being taken seriously and vote for what they believe.

Now without further adieu here are my reactions per each category.

BEST PICTURE:
A Complete Unknown
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
The Substance
Wicked

I wonder if the Oscar 10 is sitting right here? I am skeptical of Emilia Perez and The Substance. Emilia Perez is very divisive. The Substance is just not the kind of film the Oscars tend to go for. I think you’ll see one or two other foreign language films get into the Best Picture Line-up.

I think the other eight films are definitely safe at this point. Maybe The Seed of the Sacred Fig or All We Imagine As Light are nine and ten, replacing the aforementioned two films.

BEST ACTOR:
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig – Queer
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Hugh Grant – Heretic

Gotta love the awards bodies that have more than five nominees, so everyone has to tear their hair out predicting the Oscar five. However, this category is becoming clear. Drop out Hugh Grant and you’re looking at the Oscar five.

BEST ACTRESS:
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
Marianne Jean-Baptiste – Hard Truths
Angelina Jolie – Maria
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance

Another six where the Oscar five is likely going to come from. I think Mikey and Cynthia are the two definites. Karla would make for a good story, so I can see her making it in. I’m most worried for Marianne, hopefully this gives her a good boost.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin – Sing Sing
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Denzel Washington – Gladiator II

Love to see Clarence Maclin here! I feel like he is sixth currently, mainly because Kieran is committing category fraud. Clarence needed this boost. His Oscar nomination would make for an incredible story, people just need to be more aware of Sing Sing.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Danielle Deadwyler – The Piano Lesson
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – Nickel Boys
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Margaret Qualley – The Substance
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

Aunjanue and Danielle needed this nomination to keep their Oscar hopes alive. Selena Gomez and Felicity Jones didn’t repeat here. I don’t expect Selena to get in at the Oscars. She was a very Globes pick.

Felicity depends on the strength of The Brutalist. If it does well with the Oscars she’s likely to get in, if not, she doesn’t. I think the safe bets now are Isabella, Zoe, and Ariana. Margaret, Aunjanue, Danielle, and Felicity will be fighting for two spots.

Margaret will be in the same boat as Felicity. It depends on how much the Academy likes The Substance. Danielle and Aunjanue got some much-needed help here.

BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS:
Alyla Browne – Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Elliott Heffernan – Blitz
Maisy Stella – My Old Ass
Izaac Wang – Didi
Alisha Weir – Abigail
Zoe Ziegler – Janet Planet

A cool category that does not repeat at the Oscars. I will say Maisy Stella will be around for a while. She’s very funny in My Old Ass.

BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE:
Anora
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Saturday Night
Sing Sing
Wicked

Another category that doesn’t repeat at the Oscars. It is an indication of which films have strength. Wicked, Anora, Conclave, and Emilia Perez seem to have a lot of strength, at least in the Best Picture sense.

BEST DIRECTOR:
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker – Anora
Edward Berger – Conclave
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
Jon M. Chu – Wicked
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys
Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two

The Directors branch at the Oscars is very snobbish, at least I’ve heard. So I don’t think Jon Chu is making the five. Unless he gets a huge boost between now and Oscar nominations I don’t’ see RaMell Ross getting in either.

So that is six people for five spots, at least from the people here. The Directors branch is very international, so they tend to go for at least one non-American director. They could have two with Jacques and Coralie. Maybe Payal Kapadia sneaks in for All We Imagine as Light.

I suspect Berger, Corbet, and Baker are safe. I’m curious to see if Denis makes it in or not. Dune 2 seems to be losing steam.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Sean Baker – Anora
Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David – September 5
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold – The Brutalist
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Justin Kuritzkes – Challengers

I believe the five will be here minus September 5. There just doesn’t seem to be the excitement for the film as the other five.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
Winnie Holzman, Dana Fox – Wicked
Greg Kwedar, Clint Bentley – Sing Sing
RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes – Nickel Boys
Peter Straughan – Conclave
Denis Villeneuve, Jon Spaihts – Dune: Part Two

Personally I don’t think Jacques should get in here. I also would nominate The Order or Hit Man over Wicked. Alas, the Wicked train seems inevitable.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
Jarin Blaschke – Nosferatu
Alice Brooks – Wicked
Lol Crawley – The Brutalist
Stéphane Fontaine – Conclave
Greig Fraser – Dune: Part Two
Jomo Fray – Nickel Boys

My inkling is that Wicked drops from this six. The ASC will have their nominations on January 9th, which will give a good indicator of what is likely to reappear at the Oscars.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
Judy Becker, Patricia Cuccia – The Brutalist
Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales – Wicked
Suzie Davies – Conclave
Craig Lathrop – Nosferatu
Arthur Max, Jille Azis, Elli Griff – Gladiator II
Patrice Vermette, Shane Vieau – Dune: Part Two

I think either Gladiator II or Nosferatu will be the film to fall off. It depends on which one is stronger with the Academy.

BEST EDITING:
Sean Baker – Anora
Marco Costa – Challengers
Nick Emerson – Conclave
David Jancso – The Brutalist
Joe Walker – Dune: Part Two
Hansjörg Weißbrich – September 5

Unless September 5 starts to pick up steam, I think it could get skunked at the Oscars. Looking at the other five nominees, I don’t see how September 5 gets in over any of them.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN:
Lisy Christl – Conclave
Linda Muir – Nosferatu
Massimo Cantini Parrini – Maria
Paul Tazewell – Wicked
Jacqueline West – Dune: Part Two
Janty Yates, Dave Crossman – Gladiator II

I wonder if Conclave repeats at the Oscars. It’s four different colored robes. I could see the other five getting in at the Oscars. I think The Bikerriders would be a cool nomination here, but that won’t happen.

BEST HAIR AND MAKEUP:
Christine Blundell, Lesa Warrener, Neal Scanlan – Beetlejuice Beetlejuice
Hair and Makeup Team – Dune: Part Two
Hair and Makeup Team – The Substance
Frances Hannon, Sarah Nuth, Laura Blount – Wicked
Traci Loader, Suzanne Stokes-Munton, David White – Nosferatu
Mike Marino, Sarah Graalman, Aaron Saucier – A Different Man

I would bet Beetlejuice Beetlejuice falls off. I’d love for the Terrifer 3 team to get in at the Oscar, but there is no way that would ever happen.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS:
Mark Bakowski, Pietro Ponti, Nikki Penny, Neil Corbould – Gladiator II
Pablo Helman, Jonathan Fawkner, Paul Corbould, David Shirk – Wicked
Paul Lambert, Stephen James, Rhys Salcombe, Gerd Nefzer – Dune: Part Two
Luke Millar, David Clayton, Keith Herft, Peter Stubbs – Better Man
Visual Effects Team – The Substance
Erik Winquist, Stephen Unterfranz, Paul Story, Rodney Burke – Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

I would assume Gladiator II or Wicked misses at the Oscars. Probably Gladiator II, when the CGI and humans interact it does not look good.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE:
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

With only five nominees here, I think this is your five. Moana 2 is not good and I don’t think it’ll get in.

BEST COMEDY:
A Real Pain
Deadpool & Wolverine
Hit Man
My Old Ass
Saturday Night
Thelma

Another category that does not repeat at the Oscars. Maybe genre categories could be good. Then the Oscars would be forced to nominate comedy and horror at least once.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM:
All We Imagine as Light
Emilia Pérez
Flow
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Like the Dune: Part Two score, All We Imagine as Light is not eligible in this category at the Oscars because it was not India’s submission. So the other five may be the nominees here. I’m not sure about Kneecap or Flow. Maybe The Girl with the Needle or Vermiglio.

BEST SONG:
“Beautiful That Way” – The Last Showgirl – Miley Cyrus
“Compress / Repress” – Challengers – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
“El Mal” – Emilia Pérez – Zoe Saldaña, Karla Sofía Gascón, Camille
“Harper and Will Go West” – Will & Harper – Kristen Wiig
“Kiss the Sky” – The Wild Robot – Maren Morris
“Mi Camino” – Emilia Pérez – Selena Gomez

This is a category I have no clue what will win the Oscar. I’m guessing something from Emilia Perez, but I couldn’t distinct one song from the other, a major problem with the film…

BEST SCORE:
Volker Bertelmann – Conclave
Daniel Blumberg – The Brutalist
Kris Bowers – The Wild Robot
Clément Ducol & Camille – Emilia Pérez
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross – Challengers
Hans Zimmer – Dune: Part Two

Well again Dune: Part Two is ineligible for the Oscar. So it wouldn’t be surprising if the other five was the Oscar lineup.

I believe Dune: Part Two is ineligible because it uses too much from the first film.