Official 2023 Oscar Predictions
The time has finally come! We’re just a little over a week away from the 2023 Academy Awards, celebrating and rewarding the films of 2022. So, now it’s finally time for my official Oscar predictions.
I will be predicting the winners plus adding who I hope will win. Some of those might be possible and some I know are long shots, but I can still hope, right?
First up the shorts:
These tend to make or break everyone’s Oscar pools simply because only industry people have seen any of these. Fortunately for you readers, I listen to way too many inside podcasts. So here are the Shorts predictions.
Best Animated Short:
Who Will Win: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, & The Horse
Who I Want to Win: Ice Merchants
In these short categories, it’s best to go with which one is the most widely available to see. Since Apple has The Boy, The Mole ect… It seems like the likely winner. My Year of Dicks is a fun short but Ice Merchants hit me in the gut. Definitely the best of this crop in my opinion.
Best Live Action Short:
Who Will Win: Le Pupille
Who I Want to Win: Night Ride
I am only able to see two of the five nominated Live Action Shorts. But, I do believe Le Pupille is going to win based on it being on Disney+ and Alphonso Cuaron is a producer. Night Ride is a cool little short, and I liked it more than Le Pupille, so for that, I am rooting for Night Ride.
Best Documentary Short:
Who Will Win: Stranger at the Gate
Who I Want to Win: Haulout
Lots of people are predicting Stranger at the Gate to win the Oscar. One big thing it has going for it is it is produced by Malala Yousafzai.
She has been out in full force campaigning for it. So whether someone likes the short or not they’ll at least like the name and go for it.
Netflix has two of these; The Elephant Whisperers and The Martha Mitchell Effect so it could be one of these. The Elephant Whisperers is more of a crowd-pleaser than The Martha Mitchell Effect.
Though if you want a good Doc short about animals check out Haulout. It’s a very cool and sad doc about Walrus migration and it’s on The New Yorker’s website and YouTube for free.
Best Costume Design:
Who Will Win: Elvis
Who I Want to Win: Babylon
A part of me wants to predict Ruth Carter for Black Panther, but I don’t think as many people watched the sequel as watched the original. But, a movie everyone saw last year? Elvis. Lots of people liked it too. So, I think it takes this one for that reason.
I want Babylon to win everything it was up for because it should’ve gotten more recognition.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Who Will Win: Elvis
Who I Want to Win: The Batman
I think this category is a two-horse race, between Elvis and The Whale. Like my argument for Costume Design, Elvis was seen by a lot more people, plus I think this will coincide with an acting win. Which has happened a few times as of late.
I would love The Batman to triumph here simply for what they did to Colin Farrell.
Best Visual Effects:
Who Will Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Who I Want to Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
This is the easiest category to call come Oscar night. Nothing is as amazing as Avatar’s VFX.
Best Film Editing:
Who Will Win: Everything, Everywhere All At Once
Who I Want to Win: Everything, Everywhere All At Once
One of the things that stick out when you watch EEAAO is the editing. There is a lot of Editing, in a good way, not in a Bohemian Rhapsody way. This film could’ve easily been incomprehensible, but thanks to the editing and direction, it works.
It is weird that Top Gun: Maverick could go home empty-handed, which is why many are picking it to prevail here, plus it is well-edited, just not showy like EEAAO.
Best Sound:
Who Will Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Who I Want to Win: ?? Top Gun: Maverick I guess.
If there is a war film in the line-up, always go with that one. Here we have two. I think All Quiet will be recognized in other categories so it may be here where Top Gun is recognized.
I don’t really care who wins here. My two personal picks; Nope & TAR, are not here. So I don’t really care who wins this category.
Best Production Design:
Who Will Win: Babylon
Who I Want to Win: Babylon
Maybe I am being foolish here, but there are several different sets that were built for this film. It’s a technically impressive film. The film feels massive and a big reason for that is the huge sets for all of the extras.
Best Cinematography:
Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who I Want to Win: TAR
Seems to be the consensus that James Friend will become a first-time Academy Award winner for his work on All Quiet on the Western Front. That film looks amazing, I wish I could’ve seen this on a big screen.
Over the past weekend, Mandy Walker won the ASC for cinematography for Elvis. If she wins the Oscar she would be the first woman to do so. However, All Quiet was not nominated here, and the two times it was against Elvis All Quiet won. So I think All Quiet still has the edge in this race.
TAR’s Cinematography is much more subtle but brilliant. You don’t come away from that film thinking about the cinematography but it’s stellar.
Best Original Score:
Who Will Win: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon.
Who I Want to Win: Justin Hurwitz – Babylon
The BAFTAs went with Volker Bertelmann for All Quiet on the Western Front. I think that was a case for them going European rather than indicating where the Oscar will go.
Justin Hurwitz has possibly made his greatest score to date which should be reflected in his second Oscar.
Best Original Song:
Who Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
Who I Want to Win: “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
RRR was maybe the most fun film of 2022. An action epic laden with great musical numbers, none better than “Naatu Naatu”. This song rips and I hope we get to see it performed live at the Oscars.
Best Animated Feature:
Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Who I Want to Win: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Guillermo’s Pinocchio is sweeping everywhere. It is an impressive film but I didn’t connect with the film as I did with Marcel. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On is like being wrapped in a warm blanket.
I liked Turning Red a lot but how many Oscars do Pixar and Disney need?
Best Documentary Feature:
Who Will Win: Navalny
Who I Want to Win: Fire of Love
I’ll admit this is the category I have been slacking but it is also hard to find a couple of these. Navalny won the PGA for Documentary Feature on the 25th.
The film tells the story of the poisoning of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. Given how prominent Putin has been in the news, this win would be a middle finger to him and a statement against everything he stands for.
I thought Fire of Love was a really cool doc. I don’t think it has a chance of winning but you should check it out. It’s currently on Disney+.
Best International Feature:
Who Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Who I Want to Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Considering it was nominated for (checks notes) nine total Oscars, I don’t think any other film has a chance in this category. All Quiet is an impressive film and will be a worthy winner.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Who Will Win: Sarah Polley for Women Talking
Who I Want to Win: Sarah Polley for Women Talking
Thankfully this past weekend Sarah Polley won the USC Scripters award and the WGA for adapted screenplay. These are two of the biggest indicators for the Oscars.
This is where the Academy will reward Women Talking, and rightfully so. If there is a spoiler here, which there definitely could be, it would be Edward Berger & Leslie Paterson for All Quiet on the Western Front.
Best Original Screenplay:
Who Will Win: The Daniels for Everything Everywhere All at Once
Who I Want to Win: Either Martin McDonagh for The Banshees of Inisherin or Todd Field for TAR.
The Daniels won at WGA for original screenplay, beating Martin McDonagh. So I have to go with the numbers here and predict EEAAO for original screenplay.
It’s weird thinking that the Oscars could be going for a sweep for EEAAO instead of spreading the wealth, but numbers (guild wins) don’t lie.
I think that since Martin is a respected writer in the industry, he has yet to win an Oscar for writing. He has one for a short film in 2004.
Banshees is also his best script to date. Todd Field wrote one of the funniest films in 2022. Not to mention a brilliant one as well. These are my two favorite scripts from 2022, so I’d be happy if Martin or Todd won.
Best Supporting Actor:
Who Will Win: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who I Want to Win: Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All At Once
He has won every precursor except the BAFTA which went to Barry Keoghan. I don’t think there is any stopping Ke. It will be a great moment at the Oscars when he wins.
Best Supporting Actress:
Who Will Win: Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin
Who I Want to Win: Kerry Condon for The Banshees of Inisherin
This is the most wide-open category at the Oscars by far. Let’s look at the Precursors;
Angela Bassett – Golden Globe, Critic’s Choice
Kerry Condon – BAFTA
SAG – Jamie Lee Curtis
The two more accurate precursors are the BAFTA and SAG. Had Condon or Curtis won both of those I’d say this was a little easier to predict.
The Academy loves to do two things, a reward for a career, and ID the rising new star and reward them, usually female.
Curtis and Bassett fall into the former and Condon fall into the latter. I really am not sure who is going to win here. Jamie Lee’s speech at the SAG was great and could give her a boost for the Oscar, plus there appears to be a lot of love for EEAAO.
There has been an 8-year stretch where the winner in this category has been the only win for their film. It goes all the way back to Patricia Arquette winning for Boyhood.
There is also a chance that this is where the Academy rewards Banshees. Plus, Condon did win the BAFTA, so as I write this I think I just wrote myself into predicting Condon.
Best Actor:
Who Will Win: Austin Butler for Elvis
Who I Want to Win: Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin
I’d say this is a three-horse race but I just don’t see the support for Colin there to really consider him a threat to win.
Austin Butler has won: Golden Globe and BAFTA
Brendan Fraser has won: Critic’s Choice and SAG
Colin Farrell has won: Golden Globe for Comedy/Musical
I would say going off of history the Academy doesn’t reward the young male actor. They wait too long and reward him for a career by giving him an Oscar for a lesser performance. But, a few years ago they gave Rami Malek the Oscar for fake teeth and lip-syncing Queen songs.
The Academy also loves to reward the makeup and acting Oscar as a pair. Last year they did it for Chastain and The Eyes of Tammy Faye.
There is so much love for Elvis that I think Butler prevails here, but I won’t be surprised if Fraser wins here either.
Best Actress:
Who Will Win: Michelle Yeoh for Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who I Want to Win: I’ve never rooted for a tie before but I am this year. I want Cate Blancett for TAR and Michelle Yeoh for EEAAO to tie and both go home with Oscars.
This is a two-horse race. It’ll either be Michelle Yeoh or Cate Blanchett.
Yeoh won the Globe for Comedy/Musical and the SAG
Blanchett won Critic’s Choice, BAFTA, and Globe
Really this race is a coin flip. With the support of EEAAO and the fact that Cate has won twice, I can see Yeoh winning here.
But sometimes the Academy doesn’t care and will give Cate her third Oscar as they did with Francis. But, the momentum is definitely in Yeoh’s corner.
Cate gave one of the greatest performances ever put on screen. Michelle Yeoh has been an amazing and underrated [award-wise] actress for her entire career.
She gives a great performance in EEAAO showing her incredible range. Either one will be a worthy winner.
Best Director:
Who Will Win: The Daniels for Everything Everywhere All At Once
Who I Want to Win: Todd Field for TAR
Looking at precursors, Spielberg won at the Golden Globes. Edward Berger won at the BAFTAs. Not super surprising considering he is European.
But it was a surprise in the fact that no one was predicting that and it doesn’t help in the Oscar predictions.
What does help is The Daniels winning at DGA [Director’s Guild of America]. They also won the Critic’s Choice, but the DGA is a big signifier because it means their contemporaries think they deserve to be the winner.
So, I believe the Oscars will follow suit and Daniel Scheinart and Daniel Kwan will be your Oscar winners. Some believe it will be Spielberg but I find that weird considering he’s won twice and there’s not as much love for The Fabelmans.
Todd Field made not only the best film of 2022 but one of the best films of the 21st century. I would love it if he won here.
Best Picture:
What Will Win: Everything Everywhere All At Once
What I Want to Win: TAR
EEAAO really is the little engine that could this year. It came out nearly a year ago, but the love and support have carried it through all the way to now.
On its way it has won: Critics Choice Best Picture, Golden Globe Best Comedy/Musical, and SAG ensemble, and the PGA for Outstanding Producer of a Theatrical Project.
Logically this film is winning, but the film is so weird and not typical of an Oscar film, it brings me a small pause predicting this to win.
But clearly, the support is there, and in the ranked voting system this film probably prevails in the second or third round.
Overall I think this is one of the best lineups the Academy has ever put forth. EEAAO will not only be the most unique winner ever, but it’ll also be one of the coolest.
I like EEAAO, but I think TAR is one of the greatest films of the 21st century. Todd Field has made a complex look into “cancel culture”, the myth of the great artist, all capped by one of the most towering performances ever. Not many films give you this much to chew on, It’d be an all-time win.
That’s it! These are all of my Academy Award predictions. Don’t @ me if you lose your Oscar pool.
