2024 Gloden Globe Nominations and the Oscar Implications
Like last year, I will only be reacting to the Movie nominations. I don’t watch enough TV to give any kind of reaction. So what are the 2024 Golden Globe nominations and what do they mean for the Oscars?
Well, for the most part, the Globes are not a great predictor of the Academy Awards. For a long time, the Globes were a corrupt organization that voted for stars and anyone who was willing to bribe for their votes.
They went through a major overhaul in the last couple of years, attempting to become a more prestigious awards body. I’d say the movie nominations today were a good stride towards that.
The revamped wards also came with some changes. Two new categories were added to the Globes this year: Best Performance in a Stand-Up Comedy Special and Cinematic and Box-Office Achievement. The latter feels like a nonsense category to be honest. The box office is the movie’s reward. What do I know?
The other major change is adding a sixth nominee to each category. You have to love them adding more fuel to the speculation flame of Oscar predicting. Below is a link to the Globes Website where you can see all nominees here.
So let’s go by category and see what these nominations mean in the grand scheme.
Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language
Two films, that will not repeat at the Oscars, are Past Lives (It’s an American Production) and Anatomy of a Fall which was not France’s submission. Interesting it got in here over France’s submission The Taste of Things.
The Zone of Interest is probably the front-runner in this category at the Oscars and it got a large boost from the Globes earning three nominations. Anatomy of a Fall clearly still has strong support and could wind up in the Best Picture line-up.
Best Motion Picture Animated
There seem to be two good animated films from this year and a bunch of meh. The Boy and the Heron and Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse. Having just seen The Boy and the Heron this deserves to win and be placed in the Best Picture line-up. This Oscar race is between these two films.
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem was robbed here!
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
There doesn’t seem to be an obvious pick in this category yet. If I were a betting man I’d say the winner from here and at the Oscars will be from Barbie. Possibly “What Was I Made For?” I think at least two Barbie songs will get in at the Academy Awards.
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
This is a two-horse race at the Oscars between Ludwig Goransson for Oppenheimer and Robbie Robertson for Killers of the Flower Moon. This remains the case with both being nominated. I will say Joe Hisaishi’s score for The Boy and the Heron is incredible and I’m glad it got recognized and I hope it can get it at the Academy Awards.
An unlikely nomination I would’ve loved here is Gary Gunn’s score for A Thousand and One.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture.
The Globes do not split Adapted and Original into two categories. Likely all six nominees here get in at the Oscars. I believe we have three adapted and three original. Adapted: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things. Original: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, and Past Lives.
Not sure about the front-runners here. Killers is the early front-runner but I feel like Poor Things is the perfect kind of screenplay winner. For Original Barbie was the heavy favorite, but Anatomy of a Fall keeps earning nominations and garnering awards favor, I’d say Anatomy of a Fall is the front-runner. It’s dialogue-heavy and well-written at that.
Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture
This is one of the most stacked categories at the Oscars. All six of the nominees could be nominated. I have personal favorites that I was holding out hope for but they seem gone. Glenn Howerton in Blackberry was a longshot anyway but his Oscar chances are dwindling.
John Magaro in Past Lives is a great performance. Past Lives did very well at the Globes, but seeing as how well it did and John missed he will likely miss at the Oscars.
If I had to make a guess at the Oscar five it’ll be five of these nominated with one of the Poor Things actors missing at the Oscars, either Dafoe or Ruffalo.
Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture
Here is where the Globes Globed. Rosamund Pike for Saltburn. The Globes love to nominate their stars so they can party with them and they love Rosamund. I do think she was one of the best things about that film, but she is not getting an Oscar nomination.
I think Danielle Brooks, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and Emily Blunt are locked for the Oscars leaving two spots. Jodie Foster in Nyad and Julianne Moore in May December make sense as the Oscar five, if they repeat at the BAFTAs and SAGs I think they get that Oscar nomination.
I wish Rachel McAdams would’ve gotten in here for Are You There God? It’s Me, Margret. As well as getting into screenplay. It still can be at the Oscars for screenplay. But, if Rachel is already missing here she is likely not getting a nomination.
Best Male Lead Performances – Motion Picture
The Globes do the Comedy/Musical and Drama lead performances. So we have 12 lead performances to look at for the five coveted Oscar spots. The only major contenders from the Comedy/Musical line-up are Paul Giamatti and Jeffrey Wright.
They’re the two piling up the critical nominations. Paul is the only lock in my opinion, but it Jeffrey keeps racking up nominations he could get in at the Oscars.
For Drama, the only sureout is Barry Keoghan in Saltburn. The other four nominees are in play for the Oscar. So we have seven men fighting for five spots. Right now it’s likely: Giamatti, Murphy, DiCaprio, Wright, and Cooper.
But All of Us Strangers has yet to be released. If it connects with audiences Andrew Scott could gain more traction for that nomination.
Best Female Lead Performance – Motion Picture
Currently, the five Oscar nominees are here in these 12 nominated performances. The five front-runners are Emma Stone, Margot Robbie, Carey Mulligan, Lily Gladstone, and Sandra Huller.
Fantasia is the one who could break through but I have a tough time deciding whom she replaces. Those five performances have been doing so well on the awards circuit that they feel solid. With Lily Gladstone as the winner, currently, but there is a long way to go.
Portman is the other performance that could sneak in at the Oscars. This is another loaded category. Currently eight or nine of the 12 performances that could get the Oscar nom. Again, to get the best sense of the five we’ll need to see the BAFTAs and SAGs.
Loved the Cailee Spaney nomination for Priscilla. One of those nominations that makes expanding the nominees to six a good idea. Lawrence was another fun nomination here, congrats to them both.
Best Director – Motion Picture
A very good line-up of six directors. I believe the five Oscar nominees will come from these six. Nolan, Gerwig, Scorsese, and Lanthimos all feel like locks. So it’ll come down to Cooper or Song. Unfortunately with this being Song’s first film, I don’t think she makes it in.
Also, The Zone of Interest did well here and has yet to be released to the public. Don’t be surprised if the Academy goes with Jonathan Glazer. Alternatively, with Anatomy of a Fall getting so much love it could be Justine Triet.
The Director’s branch is very international and for the past several years there has been an international representation here. If that happens, likely it is Glazer or Triet.
Best Picture
Again the Globes split their Best Picture into two categories; Comedy/Musical and Drama. I think the most surprising thing in both of these categories is The Color Purple missing in Comedy/Musical.
It received two acting nominations but failed to get in here. This could just be the Globes being themselves and they want to party with Ben Affleck and Matt Damon, so they nominated Air. Maybe they think Air is better.
I think Air is good, but I haven’t seen The Color Purple, So I cannot say if one is better than the other yet. But my guess is that is what happened. Given the early reactions to The Color Purple, I think that it will be nominated at the Oscars.
One big thing that happened this morning is Past Lives getting a lot of love. I said that last week it needed support to stick around to make it to the Oscars. Receiving five total nominations keeps it at the forefront of people’s minds and makes others who have not seen it watch it.
So, what is likely nominated for Best Picture at the Oscars? Well, the seven I mentioned last week are still there. So what are the next three? If I had to guess on the strength of the films, I’d say the ranking right now is:
1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Oppenheimer
3. Barbie
4. The Holdovers
5. Poor Things
6. Maestro
7. Past Lives
8. Anatomy of a Fall
9. The Zone of Interest
10. The Color Purple
I am betting now the Academy puts three foreign language films in Best Picture. Based on the strength of all three. The last spot I’ll say The Color Purple, seems to be playing well and will play well to a wide audience.
So, overall this is a pretty good Globes nomination. Remember to not take too much stock into these nominations for the Oscars. I say this as I just wrote over 1,600 words, but I love this time of year!
