2025 Official Oscar Predictions
Here are my Oscar predictions and my hopefuls:
Visual Effects
Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked
Will Win: Dune: Part Two
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Sound
A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Wicked
The Wild Robot
Will Win: Wicked
Should Win: Dune: Part Two
Usually, musicals win the sound category, and Wicked is the more technically appreciated of the two musicals here. I’m partial to huge Science Fiction films in the sound category. Dune: Part Two is a technical marvel.
Makeup and Hairstyling
A Different Man
Emilia Perez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked
Will Win: The Substance
Should Win: The Substance
Music (Original Song)
“El Mal” – Emilia Perez
“The Journey” – The Six Triple Eight
“Like a Bird” – Sing Sing
“Mi Camino” – Emilia Perez
“Never Too Late” – Elton John: Never Too Late
Will Win: “El Mal” – Emilia Perez
Should Win: “Like a Bird” – Sing Sing
This is a poor category. Miley Cyrus should be here with “Beautiful That Way”.
Music (Original Score)
The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg
Conclave – Volker Bertelmann
Emilia Perez – Clement Ducol & Camille
Wicked – John Powell & Stephen Schwartz
The Wild Robot – Kris Bowers
Will Win: The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg
Should Win: The Brutalist – Daniel Blumberg
With no Challengers, Daniel Blumberg should walk away with this Oscar.
Costume Design
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked
Will Win: Wicked
Should Win: Wicked
Production Design
The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked
Will Win: Wicked
Should Win: The Brutalist
The sets are great in Wicked, but the cinematography washes everything out. The Brutalist sets are incredible, especially the library. I also really like Conclave’s recreations of the Vatican.
Cinematography
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
Maria
Nosferatu
Will Win: The Brutalist
Should Win: The Brutalist
Shot in VistaVision, which hasn’t been used since 1961 in One Eyed Jacks. This film is staggering, capturing the buildings from the ground up in full detail.
Film Editing
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Wicked
Will Win: Conclave
Should Win: The Brutalist
Seemingly, Conclave is the front-runner. It’s not showy editing, but its swift in its storytelling. I know editing is more than just making a long film feel short, but The Brutalist flies by.
Live Action Short Film
A Lien
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Will Win: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Should Win: I’m Not a Robot
As I am not a Robot is the only live short I have seen I have to pick it to win. I’ve heard great things about The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent so I am picking it to win.
Documentary Short Film
Death by Numbers
I Am Ready, Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Will Win: I Am Ready, Warden
Should Win: Incident
I’m not sure how someone could watch Incident and not have an emotional reaction. However, it may be too off putting in it’s storytelling technique.
Animated Short Film
Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!
Will Win: Wander to Wonder
Should Win: In the Shadow of Cypress
Wander to Wonder is very weird, but it did win the Annie for short subject. In the Shadow of the Cypress is the short dealing with the heaviest subject matter. It’s also gorgeous animation.
Documentary Feature Film
Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
Sugarcane
Will Win: No Other Land
Should Win: N/A. Haven’t Seen Any of Them.
Topical, and the Academy loves choosing a topical message.
Animated Feature Film
Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot
Will Win: The Wild Robot
Should Win: Flow
Maybe I’m scared to go with my heart, but I think The Wild Robot will ultimately win this.
International Feature Film
I’m Still Here
The Girl with the Needle
Emilia Perez
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Flow
Will Win: I’m Still Here
Should Win: I’m Still Here
I’d also be happy if Flow or The See of the Sacred Fig won here. Just anything but Emilia Perez.
Writing (Original Screenplay)
Anora – Sean Baker
The Brutalist – Brady Corbet & Mona Fastvold
A Real Pain – Jesse Eisenberg
September 5 – Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Co-Written by Alex David
The Substance – Coralie Fargeat
Will Win: Anora – Sean Baker
Should Win: Anora – Sean Baker
This is where I want Sean to win. He won the WGA, but that’s not always the best predictor because of their rules. Anora is a tremendous script.
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
A Complete Unknown – James Mangold & Jay Cocks
Conclave – Peter Straughan
Emilia Perez – Jacques Audiard; In collaboration with Thomas Bidegain, Lea Mysius, & Nicolas Livecchi
Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
Sing Sing – Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar; Story by Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar, Clarence Maclin, John “Divine G” Whitfield
Will Win: Conclave – Peter Straughan
Should Win: Nickel Boys – RaMell Ross & Joslyn Barnes
Conclave is fun. Nickel Boys is essential.
Directing
Sean Baker – Anora
Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
Jacques Audiard – Emilia Perez
Coralie Fargeat – The Substance
Will Win: Sean Baker – Anora
Should Win: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
It’s hard to go against the DGAs. The last 9/10 DGA winners have gone onto win the Oscar. It feels like Anora is gaining steam. Brady could still win this; what he achieved is beyond impressive.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande – Wicked
Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez
Will Win: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Perez
Should Win: Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
Monica in A Complete Unknown, a movie I didn’t totally like, blew me away.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Yura Borisov – Anora
Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice
Will Win: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Should Win: Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Guy gives a career best performance in The Brutalist.
Actress in a Leading Role
Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon – Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison – Anora
Demi Moore – The Substance
Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
Will Win: Demi Moore – The Substance
Should Win: Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
What Fernanda can do with a look…Demi winning the SAG put this race to bed.
Actor in a Leading Role
Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice
Will Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Should Win: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
A career-best performance will deliver a deserved second Oscar for Adrien. I’m sticking with Adrien because the Academy is more European, and could go for The Brutalist over A Complete Unknown.
Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Perez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked
Will Win: Anora
Should Win: The Brutalist
Anorastill feels like a weird Best Picture winner, but I cannot make a strong enough case for any others, at least when considering the precursors. The last film to win the PGA, DGA, and WGA and lose the Oscar Best Picture was Brokeback Mountain.
